Good Buy to 2008/09

Fear dominated the back half of 2008, whilst hope (rather than denial, in our view) buoyed the first half of 2009.  As our regular readers would be aware, our key indicators suggested that a V shaped recovery with above trend growth would develop through 2010.  This view underpinned our tilt towards global beta through H1 2009. The market agreed with this view, with cyclicality significantly out performing defensiveness since February 2009.

Whilst, we have now shaded global beta and shifted towards domestic exposures through H2 2009, our shift is primarily premised on relative valuation and seasonal commodity demand from China, rather than any meaningful erosion of our key lead indicators.

Like the market, our thinking has now moved beyond the first half of 2010 to examine the likely trajectory and composition of growth post 2010. In order to examine this challenge, we need to better understand: 1. The sharpness of both the collapse and subsequent recovery through 2008/09 (V shaped); 2. The resilience of both productivity and margins through the recession (labour has borne a large part of the adjustment); 3. The magnitude (above or below trend) and composition (developed, emerging, synchronised) of growth post 2010.

BBY is an Australian focused stockbroking, corporate advisory and asset management firm. With offices in Sydney, Melbourne, UK and UAE along with a global presence in the USA and Asia, BBY is well positioned to service its clients’ local and global needs.

BBY’s primary objective is to assist high growth, medium to large sized Australian companies to capitalise on opportunities in a dynamic marketplace. BBY is able to allocate significant resources to ensure we solve our client's problems by getting the best possible result in meeting their objective. BBY’s long term commitment to its clients is strongly supported by well-regarded research and experienced corporate finance and institutional broking teams.

Established in 1987, and formerly known as Burdett, Buckeridge Young, BBY has developed a reputation for providing focused, quality services, innovative solutions and high level execution for its institutional, corporate and high-net-worth clients.

BBY is an independent Australian firm, with the strength of an international partnership with leading Asian investment bank CIMB-GK, (www.cimb.com), and an equity partnership with major US investment bank, Jefferies Inc (www.jefferies.com). 

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